A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia’s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain. The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional partners. But that setback could be outweighed by an economic windfall if disruption pushes buyers toward Russian energy, alongside a possible slowdown in western arms supplies to Ukraine. “When a good fifth of global oil supply and roughly a quarter of seaborne trade is effectively locked up, that’s a boon for Russia,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and leading expert on Russia’s energy sector. Brent crude rose more than 7% on Tuesday to above $80 a barrel, adding to Monday’s 7.2% jump, after a halt to shipping in the strait of Hormuz followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on regional infrastructure. The surge pushed prices to their highest level since July 2024 and they are predicted to rise further. India and China – among the largest buyers of Middle Eastern crude – would be hardest hit by any extended disruption and could be forced to increase purchases from Moscow. While Beijing has long diversified its oil imports across the Middle East, Africa and Russia, any sustained disruption to Gulf supplies – particularly from Iran – could speed up a deeper tilt towards Russian barrels, Vakulenko said. India faces a more delicate balancing act. Until recently, Russia was its largest supplier of crude, a relationship that deepened after western sanctions reshaped global energy flows. But under a trade deal struck with Donald Trump last month, New Delhi began replacing some Russian cargoes with oil from the Gulf, cutting imports from Moscow to their lowest level since 2022. Should Middle Eastern supplies falter, Indian officials are likely to seek greater flexibility from Washington – reopening the door to increased Russian purchases. Taken together, such shifts will strengthen Russia’s hand in negotiations for higher prices. For months, Moscow had been forced to offer steep oil discounts as a glut of global supply and lingering sanctions risks made traders wary of taking Russian barrels. Storage capacity was tightening and there were growing signs that Russia could eventually be forced to curb production as cargoes struggled to find takers. “Some of the Russian oil that’s been sitting on tankers will definitely find buyers now,” said Vakulenko. Much depends on how long the crisis lasts. Importing countries typically hold about three months’ worth of oil in advance, and last summer’s 12-day fighting had only a fleeting impact on energy markets. Another question will be how severely the Gulf’s energy infrastructure – on all sides – is damaged by the time the fighting ends. “If it’s two weeks, it doesn’t matter much. If it’s longer, then things start to get interesting,” Vakulenko said. Beyond oil, Russia could also benefit from a gas shock. A halt to Qatari LNG exports would leave a gap in the global supply that Russian producers might partially fill, although gas flows are less flexible than oil and harder to reroute at short notice. Russian energy stocks have already reacted, with Gazprom and Novatek among the main gainers on the Moscow exchange. The timing could scarcely be worse for Ukraine. Russia’s oil and gas revenues – vital to financing its war – fell to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices softened and exports declined under sanctions. The downturn had raised hopes in Kyiv that Moscow might struggle to sustain its military campaign at the current intensity into 2026. “For our budget, the attack on Iran is a big plus,” the prominent Kremlin TV host Vladimir Solovyov gloated to his viewers on Monday. “If Trump strikes Iranian oilfields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we would become one of the few remaining oil-producing countries.” For Europe, too, the crisis risks reopening divisions over its approach towards Moscow. The EU has been moving to phase out Russian fossil fuels, a policy opposed by Moscow-friendly governments in Hungary and Slovakia and criticised by surging rightwing parties across the bloc. Norway’s energy minister, Terje Aasland, acknowledged on Tuesday that the escalation in the Middle East could revive debate within the EU over banning Russian gas imports. “The EU has been very clear that they want to liberate themselves from Russian oil and gas, but the events of the last three or four days have been difficult,” Aasland told a conference in Oslo. “With the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate will be revived.” Kyiv is also concerned about the knock-on military effects. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Ukraine could face difficulties securing air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriot missiles, if Washington and its regional allies prioritised their own needs. “We may have difficulties acquiring missiles and weapons to defend our airspace,” the Ukrainian president told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. “The Americans and their allies in the Middle East may need them for self-defence.” He added that Iran’s strikes on Israel last June had already delayed some deliveries. In the Kremlin, the prevailing mood is one of “wait and see,” one Moscow insider said. “The world is in turmoil, but this time we’re not at the epicentre,” the source said. Vladimir Putin has been careful not to criticise Donald Trump too harshly over the bombing of Iran, wary of antagonising a US president he sees as pivotal in putting pressure on Ukraine to accept peace terms on Moscow’s conditions. Instead, with every increase in oil prices, there is barely concealed satisfaction among Russia’s elite. “$100+ oil per barrel soon,” Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, wrote on X. • The Fujairah oil industry zone is in the United Arab Emirates, not Iran as stated earlier in a picture caption.
Middle East conflict offers economic lifeline to Russia’s flagging war machine
With much of the world’s oil supplies out of action, Russia could step in to meet demand in China and India
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