For six consecutive days, the skies over Iran have not been quiet. What began as a surgical campaign to degrade military capabilities has, according to Iranian social media and local sources cited by Al Jazeera, expanded into strikes that have struck civilian infrastructure, an airport and a key bridge, allegedly causing casualties. The United States insists it is targeting Iranian military assets, but the widening footprint of the strikes is raising alarms across the region, particularly in Islamabad, where the government of Pakistan has spent years threading a needle between Washington and Tehran.
But what happens when that needle snaps? Pakistan's foreign policy has long relied on a delicate equilibrium: maintaining strategic ties with both the US and Iran, leveraging its geographic position as a corridor for trade and energy, and avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts. Now, with US strikes intensifying and Iran's retaliation rhetoric sharpening, Islamabad finds itself staring into a geopolitical storm it may not be able to weather. The question isn't just whether Pakistan can stay neutral, it's whether neutrality itself is now a luxury it can no longer afford.
Why This Escalation Could Redraw the Middle East's Power Map, and Pakistan's Place in It
This is not just another flare-up in the Persian Gulf. The sixth straight day of US strikes on Iran marks a dangerous escalation in a shadow war that has simmered for years. The US insists its strikes are calibrated to degrade Iran's military infrastructure without triggering a full-scale war. Yet, when civilian sites are hit, whether by accident or miscalculation, the risk of misperception and overreaction skyrockets. A single bridge destroyed in Khuzestan or an airport in Bandar Abbas isn't just a logistical inconvenience; it's a potential flashpoint that could drag Iran's proxies into direct conflict with US forces or its Gulf allies.
For Pakistan, the stakes are existential. The country sits at the nexus of three critical dynamics: its long border with Iran, its role as a transit hub for energy pipelines and trade routes connecting Central Asia to the Arabian Sea, and its status as a non-NATO ally of the United States. Any escalation that forces Islamabad to choose sides risks destabilizing its already fragile economy, which is heavily dependent on IMF bailouts and foreign investment. More ominously, it could reignite domestic fault lines, sectarian tensions, militant backlash, and public anger over perceived alignment with Washington.
And then there's the China factor. Pakistan's deepening partnership with Beijing, anchored by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), makes it a key node in China's Belt and Road Initiative. If the US strikes escalate into a broader conflict, Beijing will not sit idle. Chinese investments in Gwadar Port and other CPEC projects could become collateral damage in a region where the US and China are increasingly locked in strategic competition. The US may not intend to target Pakistan, but in a region where geography dictates proximity, unintended consequences are inevitable.
The Long Shadow of 2019: When Pakistan's Neutrality Was Tested, and Nearly Broken
To understand the gravity of the current moment, look back to 2019. That year, tensions between the US and Iran reached a boiling point after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions. Then, in June, Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident unfolded just weeks after a similar crisis in May, when four oil tankers were sabotaged near the UAE port of Fujairah. Pakistan, then under the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan, faced intense pressure from both sides. Washington urged Islamabad to join its "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, while Tehran warned against allowing US forces to use Pakistani airspace or territory for strikes.
Islamabad resisted both demands. Khan's government declared it would not be "used" by either side, a stance that infuriated Washington but earned cautious praise from Tehran. Yet the pressure was immense. The US suspended military aid packages, while Iran threatened to cut off gas supplies to Pakistan, a move that would have crippled the country's energy sector during a severe winter. The crisis passed, but not without cost. Pakistan's fragile economy took another hit, and sectarian violence flared in Balochistan and Sindh, regions already simmering with separatist and militant groups.
Today, the parallels are striking. Once again, Pakistan is being pulled in opposite directions. The US, now under a new administration, is conducting strikes with greater frequency and intensity. Iran, facing internal unrest and economic strain, has vowed retaliation. And Pakistan, still grappling with the fallout from last year's devastating floods and a political crisis that saw Khan's ouster, is in no position to absorb another shock. The difference this time? The strikes are not isolated incidents, they are part of a sustained campaign. And sustained campaigns have a way of spiraling.
What Exactly Happened, and Who Is Making the Claims
According to Al Jazeera, Iranian social media accounts and local sources allege that US strikes have hit civilian infrastructure, including an airport and a key bridge. The reports, though unverified by independent journalists, have been amplified by Iranian state media and social platforms like Telegram, where footage purportedly showing damage to civilian sites has circulated widely. The US, for its part, has not denied that civilian sites may have been affected. Instead, it has reiterated that its strikes are targeting "Iranian military capabilities" to prevent further attacks on shipping lanes and US interests in the region.
The strikes began six days ago, according to the timeline provided by Al Jazeera, and have continued despite international calls for restraint. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has not released specific coordinates or details about the targets, citing operational security. However, unnamed US officials quoted in regional media have suggested that the strikes are part of a broader effort to degrade Iran's drone and missile programs, which have been used to target US bases in Iraq and Syria, as well as commercial shipping in the Gulf.
The civilian sites allegedly hit include an airport in Ahvaz, a major city in southwestern Iran, and a bridge spanning the Karun River, a critical transport artery. Iranian officials have not provided casualty figures, but social media posts suggest at least several dozen civilians may have been injured or killed. The US has not commented on these claims, but its refusal to categorically deny them has only fueled speculation that the strikes may have exceeded their stated objectives.
What is clear is that the strikes are not confined to remote military bases. They are reaching deeper into Iranian territory, and with that comes the risk of unintended consequences. A miscalculation here could trigger a chain reaction, one that Pakistan would be powerless to stop.
Global and Regional Reactions: From Condemnation to Cautious Silence
The international response to the US strikes has been mixed, reflecting the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the Middle East. Iran's traditional allies, Russia and China, have condemned the strikes as "unprovoked aggression" and called for an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council. Moscow, which has deepened its military and economic ties with Tehran in recent years, warned that the strikes could "destabilize the entire region." Beijing, meanwhile, issued a more measured statement, expressing "concern" and urging "restraint on all sides," a phrasing that implicitly places responsibility on both Washington and Tehran.
In the Gulf, reactions have been cautious. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have long viewed Iran as an existential threat, have not publicly endorsed the US strikes but have signaled support for efforts to "counter Iranian aggression." Qatar, which hosts the largest US military base in the region, has called for dialogue, while Kuwait and Oman have urged de-escalation. Turkey, a NATO member with deep economic ties to Iran, has taken a more critical stance, accusing the US of "reckless escalation" that could draw the entire region into conflict.
But it is in South Asia where the silence is most telling. India, Pakistan's regional rival, has not issued a formal statement, though diplomatic sources in New Delhi suggest the government is privately urging Washington to "avoid actions that could spiral out of control." Bangladesh, meanwhile, has reiterated its commitment to regional stability, a stance that reflects Dhaka's growing unease over the broader implications of a US-Iran conflict.
The most notable absence in the global chorus is Pakistan. Islamabad has yet to issue an official statement, a reflection of the government's paralysis in the face of competing pressures. Privately, Pakistani diplomats are said to be in frantic consultations with both Washington and Tehran, urging restraint and offering to mediate. But with each passing day of strikes, the room for maneuver is shrinking. Pakistan's neutrality, once a source of pride, is now looking more like a liability.
South Asia Impact: The Fragile Equilibrium of Islamabad's Foreign Policy Is at Risk
For Pakistan, the current crisis is not just a foreign policy challenge, it is an existential one. The country's foreign policy has long been built on a paradox: it must maintain strategic ties with the US, its largest military donor, while preserving its relationship with Iran, a neighbor with which it shares deep cultural, economic, and sectarian links. This balancing act has been possible only because Pakistan has avoided taking sides in the broader US-Iran rivalry. But when US strikes hit Iranian soil, that neutrality is no longer a shield, it's a target.
Then there's the question of trade and energy. Pakistan relies on Iran for a significant portion of its gas imports, particularly during the winter months. In 2019, when tensions flared, Iran briefly cut off gas supplies to Pakistan, sending energy prices soaring and triggering blackouts. A repeat of that scenario would be catastrophic for a country already grappling with inflation and power shortages. But even if Iran does not retaliate directly, the broader regional instability could disrupt the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, a project that has been plagued by delays and financial constraints. The pipeline, which was supposed to deliver Iranian gas to Pakistan's energy-starved cities, has been a symbol of both hope and frustration, a reminder of how geopolitics can derail even the most promising economic initiatives.
And let's not forget the militants. Pakistan's border regions with Iran, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, are already hotbeds of separatist and sectarian violence. A US-Iran conflict could provide fresh oxygen to groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have long exploited regional instability to carry out attacks. The Pakistani military, already stretched thin by domestic counterterrorism operations, would face an even greater challenge if militants receive renewed support from either side in the conflict.
But the most immediate threat to Pakistan may come from within. The country's political landscape is deeply polarized, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) accusing the current government of being a US puppet. If the strikes escalate and Pakistan is seen as complicit in US actions, even indirectly, Khan's supporters could take to the streets, reigniting the political unrest that has plagued the country for years. The military, which has historically played a stabilizing role, may find itself forced to choose between suppressing dissent and maintaining its alliance with Washington.
What Happens Next: Three Scenarios That Could Reshape South Asia
Analysts are divided over how this crisis will unfold, but three scenarios stand out as the most plausible, and each carries profound implications for South Asia.
Scenario 1: Controlled Escalation, The US Strikes End, But the Damage Lingers
The most optimistic outcome is that the US strikes taper off within the next 48-72 hours, having achieved their stated objective of degrading Iran's military capabilities. Iran, facing domestic pressure and wary of further escalation, refrains from direct retaliation. In this scenario, Pakistan breathes a sigh of relief and returns to its balancing act, though with a renewed sense of vulnerability. The crisis passes, but the lesson is clear: Pakistan's neutrality is no longer a sustainable strategy. Islamabad will need to invest in crisis management mechanisms, including deeper intelligence-sharing with Iran and the US, to prevent future flare-ups from spiraling out of control.
But even in this best-case scenario, the damage is done. The strikes have exposed the fragility of Pakistan's foreign policy, and regional players, particularly China, will take note. Beijing may accelerate its efforts to reduce Pakistan's dependence on US military and financial support, pushing for greater integration into its own economic and security frameworks. For Islamabad, this could mean a pivot toward Beijing, with all the strategic and economic trade-offs that entails.
Scenario 2: Unintended Consequences, The Conflict Spills Over
The most dangerous scenario is one in which the strikes trigger a chain reaction. Iran, facing internal unrest and desperate to rally domestic support, launches a limited retaliation against US interests in the region, perhaps targeting a base in Iraq or a Gulf ally like Saudi Arabia. The US responds with further strikes, and suddenly, what began as a targeted campaign has escalated into a full-blown conflict. In this scenario, Pakistan is drawn in not by choice, but by geography. Militants in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, emboldened by the chaos, launch attacks on Pakistani security forces, while sectarian groups exploit the crisis to stoke violence.
The economic fallout would be immediate. The Pakistan Stock Exchange would plummet, the rupee would weaken further, and the IMF, already cautious about Pakistan's economic management, could suspend its bailout program. The military, facing pressure from all sides, may be forced to take a more assertive stance, potentially clashing with civilian leaders over the direction of foreign policy. The result? A Pakistan that is weaker, more isolated, and more vulnerable to external pressures than at any time in its recent history.
Scenario 3: Pakistan's Neutrality Collapses, The Tipping Point
The third scenario is one in which Pakistan's fragile neutrality cracks under the strain. Facing mounting pressure from Washington to allow US forces to use Pakistani airspace or territory for strikes, and from Tehran to publicly condemn the US actions, Islamabad is forced to take a side. The government, already struggling with legitimacy, may opt to align more closely with the US, hoping to secure financial and military support. But this would come at a cost: Iran could retaliate by cutting off gas supplies, and militant groups could launch attacks in retaliation for Pakistan's perceived complicity.
Alternatively, Islamabad could tilt toward Iran, a move that would infuriate Washington but could shore up domestic support among the country's Shia majority. However, this would risk alienating the military, which has long viewed the US as a critical ally. Either way, the collapse of neutrality would mark a turning point in Pakistan's foreign policy, and one that could have long-term consequences for its regional standing.
The question now is whether Pakistan can avoid all three scenarios. The answer may lie in whether the US and Iran can find a way to de-escalate, or whether the strikes have already gone too far to turn back.
Will the US-Iran Conflict Force Pakistan to Choose, and at What Cost?
There is a final, unsettling possibility that looms over this crisis: that Pakistan may not have a choice at all. The US strikes on Iran are not happening in a vacuum. They are part of a broader US strategy to contain Iran's influence across the Middle East, a strategy that has already drawn in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. If this campaign escalates into a wider conflict, Pakistan's geographic position, sandwiched between Iran and Afghanistan, with a coastline on the Arabian Sea, will make it impossible to remain on the sidelines.
Already, there are signs that the crisis is beginning to reverberate across South Asia. In Afghanistan, the Taliban government, which has close ties with Iran, has issued statements condemning the US strikes and warning of "dire consequences" if the campaign continues. In India, policymakers are quietly assessing the potential impact on regional stability, particularly if the conflict disrupts energy supplies or triggers a refugee crisis. And in Bangladesh, where the government has long prioritized economic growth over geopolitical posturing, there is growing concern that the crisis could destabilize the Bay of Bengal region.
But for Pakistan, the stakes are highest. The country's economy is teetering on the edge of collapse, its political system is deeply divided, and its military is stretched thin by domestic and regional threats. In this context, the US strikes on Iran are not just a foreign policy challenge, they are a potential existential threat. The question is not whether Pakistan can weather the storm, but whether it can survive it.
The US may not intend to drag Pakistan into its conflict with Iran, but in a region where geography dictates proximity, unintended consequences are inevitable. And when those consequences arrive, Pakistan may find that its long-standing policy of neutrality was not a strategy, it was a gamble. A gamble that is now coming due.
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Key Takeaways
- Pakistan's neutrality is no longer sustainable. The US strikes on Iran have exposed the fragility of Islamabad's balancing act, leaving it vulnerable to economic, political, and security fallout if the crisis escalates.
- The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline could become a casualty of war. A US-Iran conflict risks disrupting energy supplies to Pakistan, already grappling with power shortages and inflation, while reigniting sectarian tensions in Balochistan and Sindh.
- The real test for Pakistan is whether it can avoid being forced to choose sides. With militants, domestic politics, and regional alliances all pulling in different directions, Islamabad's ability to remain neutral may be the difference between stability and chaos.
