Israel's assassination of Gaza City's police chief on Thursday is not just another strike in a long war. It is a deliberate provocation that could collapse the already-fragile US-backed Gaza Peace Plan before it even begins. By targeting Colonel Jamal Abu Kamil, accused by Israel of being a Hamas commander but publicly defended by Gaza's police as a civil servant, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate any Palestinian security structure outside its control. The timing, coming just days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected the Trump plan, signals a deliberate sabotage of diplomacy. If this pattern continues, the plan's 15-point framework, which hinged on Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament, will be dead on arrival. And with it, the last faint hope of halting the killing in Gaza.
The assassination that could kill Trump's Gaza deal before it starts
Colonel Jamal Abu Kamil's death is more than a tactical strike. It is a political message. According to reporting by Al Jazeera, Israeli forces claimed Abu Kamil was a Hamas commander, yet Gaza's police force released a statement saying he "committed to his police duties and has no connection to other activities." Hamas itself condemned the killing as "a continuation of the brutal crimes committed by the occupation." The contradiction is deliberate: Israel wants no Palestinian security institution that it cannot dismantle or co-opt. By assassinating a senior police official in broad daylight on al-Rashid Street, Israel has demonstrated that it will not allow any semblance of governance in Gaza that does not answer to Tel Aviv. This is not counterterrorism. It is the elimination of Palestinian sovereignty.
The killing occurred just one day after Israel ended a weeklong pause in air raids, a pause that had been hailed by US President Donald Trump as a "major milestone" in his peace plan. But Trump's optimism was misplaced. On Sunday, Netanyahu publicly rejected the plan, stating that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas was "genuinely disarmed." Three days later, the strikes resumed. The contradiction is glaring: Israel accepts a peace plan in public, but sabotages it in practice. Abu Kamil's assassination is the latest act in this charade. It shows that Israel is not negotiating in good faith. It is buying time to continue its military campaign under the guise of diplomacy.
Why this assassination could doom the Gaza Peace Plan, and what that means for the world
This is not just a local tragedy. It is a geopolitical earthquake. The Gaza Peace Plan, brokered by Trump and backed by the Gaza Board of Peace, was supposed to end the war by withdrawing Israeli forces and disarming Hamas. But Netanyahu's rejection and Israel's resumption of strikes have exposed the plan as a mirage. The assassination of Abu Kamil is the clearest signal yet that Israel has no intention of allowing the plan to succeed. Hamas, for its part, has accepted the deal only conditionally, demanding Israeli withdrawal and a halt to attacks first. But Israel's actions show it will not withdraw until Hamas is disarmed. And Hamas will not disarm until Israel withdraws. This is a classic Catch-22, and Abu Kamil's killing has just tightened the noose.
For the United States, the stakes are high. Trump's plan was meant to be his legacy, a way to end a war that has killed over 1,250 Palestinians since October 10, 2025, according to Gaza's Ministry of Health. But if Israel continues to undermine the plan, Trump will be exposed as a mediator who cannot deliver. For the broader Middle East, the fallout could be catastrophic. A collapsed peace plan risks a return to full-scale war, with unpredictable consequences for Lebanon, Syria, and beyond. And for the world, it raises a troubling question: if Israel will not allow a Palestinian police chief to live, what hope is there for peace?
The killing of Jamal Abu Kamil: a timeline of escalation and broken promises
The assassination of Colonel Jamal Abu Kamil did not happen in a vacuum. It is the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have violated even the most tenuous ceasefire agreements. According to Al Jazeera, Israel ended a weeklong pause in air raids on Wednesday, August 13, 2026, just one day before Abu Kamil was killed. The pause had been presented as a sign of progress under Trump's peace plan, but it was a sham. Ground attacks continued throughout, and on Wednesday, Israel struck a vehicle in Beit Lahiya, killing a municipal worker and wounding five others. On Thursday, the day of Abu Kamil's assassination, Israel struck again, in Khan Younis, killing Huthaifa Kawari, whom Israel claimed was a Hamas commander. Gaza's Nasser Hospital identified Kawari as a civilian.
This pattern is not new. Since October 10, 2025, Israel has conducted near-daily attacks on Gaza, killing over 1,250 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Ministry of Health. The so-called "ceasefire" agreed to in October has been violated repeatedly. Hamas has condemned the killings as "brutal crimes" and accused Israel of trying to "spread chaos and lawlessness." The reality is simpler: Israel is using targeted assassinations to eliminate any Palestinian leadership that it cannot control. Abu Kamil was not a Hamas commander. He was a police chief. But in Israel's calculus, any Palestinian institution that operates independently is a threat. This is not counterterrorism. It is the systematic dismantling of Palestinian governance.
Global and regional reaction: from condemnation to complicity
The international response to Abu Kamil's assassination has been swift but fragmented. Palestine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates called for the immediate implementation of the US-backed Gaza Peace Plan and condemned "attacks by Israeli forces against Palestinians returning to Gaza" as well as "continued settler attacks in the occupied West Bank." The statement reflects the Palestinian Authority's frustration with both Israel and the US, which it sees as enabling the occupation. But beyond rhetorical condemnations, there has been little action. The United States, which brokered the peace plan, has not publicly criticized Israel's resumption of strikes or the assassination of Abu Kamil. This silence speaks volumes: Washington is either unable or unwilling to hold Israel accountable for sabotaging its own diplomatic initiative.
In the Arab world, reactions have been equally muted. While some governments have condemned the killings, there has been no coordinated response. The lack of Arab unity on Gaza reflects the broader fatigue and division in the region. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have all expressed support for Palestinian rights in the past, but none have taken concrete steps to pressure Israel. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah have condemned the assassinations as part of Israel's "continuation of aggression," but their influence over Hamas is limited. The reality is that the Arab world is divided, and the international community is paralyzed. Without a unified front, Israel faces no real consequences for its actions.
South Asia impact: how Gaza's collapse could redraw militant alliances and refugee flows
The assassination of Jamal Abu Kamil and Israel's resumption of strikes in Gaza are not just a Palestinian tragedy. They are a South Asian security crisis in the making. For decades, Pakistan has positioned itself as a defender of Palestinian rights, using Gaza as a moral and diplomatic cudgel against India and the West. But the collapse of the Gaza Peace Plan could force Islamabad into an uncomfortable choice: double down on its rhetorical support for Palestine, risking a backlash from the US and Gulf states, or distance itself from the crisis to avoid domestic blowback. Either way, the fallout will be felt in Islamabad's streets and in its corridors of power.
The last time a similar regional crisis unfolded was during the 2014 Gaza war, when Pakistan's parliament voted to support Palestine and banned NATO supplies to Afghanistan in protest. That move strained Pakistan's relations with the US and fueled domestic militancy. A repeat of 2014 could see a similar dynamic: public outrage over Gaza leading to protests, militant groups gaining traction, and Islamabad caught between domestic pressure and international isolation. But this time, the stakes are higher. With the US distracted by its own political turmoil and the Gulf states divided, Pakistan may find itself with fewer allies and more enemies. The assassination of Abu Kamil is not just a strike against Gaza's police force. It is a strike against South Asia's fragile stability.
What happens next: the most likely paths, and the dangers in each
Analysts expect three possible outcomes from Israel's assassination of Jamal Abu Kamil and the resumption of strikes. The first, and most dangerous, is a full-scale Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Israeli forces will not withdraw until Hamas is "genuinely disarmed." But Hamas has shown no signs of disarming, and Israel's strikes have only hardened its resolve. A ground invasion would likely lead to a catastrophic loss of life, with unpredictable consequences for the region. The second possibility is a prolonged low-intensity conflict, with Israel conducting targeted assassinations and Gaza responding with sporadic rocket fire. This scenario would see the death toll continue to rise, but without a decisive Israeli victory. The third possibility is a return to negotiations, but only if Israel faces sufficient international pressure to halt its strikes. Given the US's reluctance to criticize Israel and the Arab world's division, this outcome seems unlikely.
A key question is whether Hamas will retaliate for Abu Kamil's assassination. The group has already condemned the killing as a "brutal crime," but it has not yet launched a major attack. If Hamas responds with a large-scale rocket barrage or a ground incursion, Israel may escalate its strikes, leading to a cycle of violence that spirals out of control. Alternatively, Hamas may choose to bide its time, waiting for Israel to make the next move. Either way, the assassination has raised the temperature in Gaza, and the risk of escalation is higher than it has been in months.
For the Gaza Peace Plan, the assassination is a death knell. The plan required Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament, but Israel's actions have shown it will not withdraw, and Hamas will not disarm. Without a miracle, the plan is dead. The question now is whether the international community will accept this reality, or whether it will finally hold Israel accountable for sabotaging its own diplomacy.
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Key Takeaways
- Israel's assassination of Gaza's police chief, Jamal Abu Kamil, is a deliberate sabotage of the US-backed Gaza Peace Plan, which Netanyahu has already rejected in public.
- For South Asia, the fallout risks reigniting militant networks in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where Gaza is a rallying cry, and could force Islamabad into a no-win diplomatic choice.
- The assassination exposes the fragility of the Gaza Peace Plan and raises the risk of a full-scale Israeli ground invasion or a prolonged low-intensity conflict with no clear end in sight.
